From weather to forecast

Every map on SoarScope is our own calculation. We start from the large weather models that weather services run, and turn their numbers into what matters for a glider.

The steps

1. The weather comes in. Several times a day the weather services publish a new run of their models: temperature, moisture and wind at many heights, sunshine, cloud, rain and more. See Weather models.
2. The ground is added. For every place on the map we know the height of the ground, how steep it is, which way it faces and what covers it: fields, forest, towns or water. See Terrain and land cover.
3. The thermals are worked out. From the sunshine and the ground we work out how much heat reaches the air, how deep the thermal layer grows, and how strong the climbs are. See Thermals.
4. Cloud and height follow. From the moisture in the rising air we work out the cloud base, whether cumulus forms, and the top of the usable lift. See Working height and cloud base.
5. The flying is worked out. From the climbs, the height and the air around them we work out how fast and how far a glider can fly, for your glider. See Cross-country speed and distance.
6. The result gets a confidence word. How settled a place’s forecast is tells you how far to trust it. See Confidence.

This happens for every place on the map and every hour of every day, each time new weather comes in.